Newsletter | November 2025 | Across Markets: Easing Yields and Global Market Rallies

Geopolitics has kept volatility on the radar throughout the year, with October being no exception. Easing US-China tensions and softer inflation signals drove a bond rally in some markets, as well as gains in equities. Towards the end of October, the US Federal Reserve Bank (US Fed) cut its rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) and also announced operational changes to its Treasury bills’ reinvestments. The Fed were still of the view that uncertainty about the economic outlook remained elevated, and the committee was attentive to the risk from both sides of its dual mandate, emphasising the downside risk from unemployment. 

There were also data gaps during the month, as the partial US government shutdown threatened the release of inflation and other data, creating a rare information vacuum and increasing short-term uncertainty. Locally, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) emphasised that inflation is closing in on its target but noted external risks, such as global rates and commodity price swings, which caused them to keep rates unchanged.

Rally in Yields and Risk Assets

Long-term bond yields fell significantly in areas such as Japan, the UK, and Germany as markets priced in a sequence of rate cuts from these regions, with Reuters citing October as a month to remember for bruised global bond markets. Goldman Sachs flagged that weaker inflation and an anticipated policy-easing path provided a favourable backdrop for bonds. From the investor’s perspective, given that yields have fallen and the curve has steepened in many markets, the risk and reward for adding long duration have improved. However, it is still necessary to watch for inflation surprises or policy pivots, and it is very important to monitor yields stabilising over a certain period first. For the month of October, the Bloomberg Global Bond Aggregate index was up 0.2% in rand terms.

Equity Markets Gain

Meanwhile, equities broadly gained momentum over the month, with positive diplomatic progress made while the US also entered its earnings season. Later in the month, a face-to-face meeting was held between Presidents Trump and Jinping to push for a trade truce. The market largely received this positively, though analysts still expressed caution, citing the possibility that the meeting’s outcomes might be tactical and have time limits. 
In rand terms, the Nasdaq Index was up 5.3% and the MSCI World Index was up 2.5%. US small-cap stocks also had a strong month, driven by rate cuts, with the Russell 2000 up 2.2% for the month and the S&P 500 Index up 2.8%. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 4.7% for the month, with MSCI India increasing 4.9%, in contrast to the MSCI China Index, which declined 3.4%. The MSCI UK Index was up 2.1% and the MSCI Europe Index rose 1.2% for the month. 

Rally in Local Markets

Locally, it was a strong month. Although resource stocks have had a strong year, October saw a slight pullback, with Resources down 5.4%. Industrials rose by 2.5%, and Financials rallied, up 8.4%. The Property sector advanced by 7.8% and nominal bonds delivered a solid return of 2.6%, leading the All Share Index to close 1.6% higher for the month. The rand depreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar, closing at R17.33.

Major Moves in South Africa

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) officially removed South Africa from its grey list after the country strengthened its anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing systems. The local currency strengthened slightly ahead of and on the day of the announcement, while bond yields also shifted, with the 2035 government bond yield falling slightly, according to Reuters. 
South Africa is set to host the G20 for the first time, and this high-profile event has significant implications for national policy, potential fiscal commitments, and the global community's perception of the country. 
 

Disclosure

_{Satrix Investments (Pty) Ltd is an approved FSP in term of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act (FAIS). The information does not constitute advice as contemplated in FAIS. Use or rely on this information at your own risk. Consult your Financial Adviser before making an investment decision.}

_{While every effort has been made to ensure the reasonableness and accuracy of the information contained in this document (“the information”), the FSP’s, its shareholders, subsidiaries, clients, agents, officers and employees do not make any representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or suitability of the information and shall not be held responsible and disclaims all liability for any loss, liability and damage whatsoever suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to any use of or reliance upon the information.}