IndexMore Webinar: Geopolitics, Commodities and ETF Flows

We recently hosted our latest IndexMore webinar, where our panel explored how geopolitical developments, commodity markets and investor flows are shaping portfolio construction in today’s environment, where heightened uncertainty has become the norm. 

The session was moderated by Nico Katzke, Head of Portfolio Solutions at Satrix, and featured Natasha Sarkaria, EMEA Investment Strategist at BlackRock, Haytham Mousa, VP: Digital Assets & Commodities Product Strategy at BlackRock, and Kingsley Williams, Chief Investment Officer at Satrix. 

The discussion examined the impact of geopolitical fragmentation on energy markets and inflation, the evolving role of commodities, global ETF flow trends and how these dynamics are reflected in emerging and local markets. 

Geopolitics, Energy and Market Stability 

A key theme of the discussion was the role of geopolitics in shaping market outcomes, particularly within energy markets. 

The panel highlighted that energy markets are currently characterised by both fragility and resilience, with supply risks from geopolitical conflict offset by inventory levels and adaptive market behaviour. 

Despite significant disruption risks, markets have managed to absorb shocks through a combination of existing supply, strategic reserves and expectations of diplomatic resolution. 

Looking ahead, potential outcomes include a controlled de-escalation, ongoing instability or renewed escalation – each with different implications for oil prices, inflation and global growth. 

Diversification in a Changing Market Environment 

Another important insight was the increasing challenge of achieving effective diversification. 

Traditional relationships between asset classes, particularly equities and bonds, have become less reliable in recent years. 

As noted in the discussion, diversification is increasingly being driven by a smaller set of macro forces, reducing the effectiveness of conventional portfolio construction approaches. 

In this environment, investors are being forced to look beyond traditional asset class diversification and consider a wider range of return drivers. 

Commodities as a Strategic Allocation 

The panel emphasised that commodities are evolving from a tactical allocation to a strategic component of portfolios. 

Structural drivers including geopolitical fragmentation, energy security concerns, the transition to cleaner energy and growing demand linked to AI infrastructure are supporting long-term demand for commodities. 

At the same time, supply constraints and historical underinvestment continue to influence the outlook, reinforcing the role of commodities in providing diversification and inflation protection. 

“Commodities are moving from a tactical trade to a strategic asset allocation.” 

ETF Flows and Investor Positioning 

The session also explored how investors are positioning portfolios through ETF flows. 

After a brief pause in flows earlier in the year, equity allocations have rebounded, particularly in large-cap markets supported by strong earnings and AI-driven growth trends. 

At the same time, fixed income continues to attract flows, supported by improved yield opportunities, while emerging market debt remains a key area of interest due to its income potential. 

Commodity allocations are also broadening beyond traditional exposures such as gold, with investors increasingly exploring diversified commodity strategies. 

Global Trends and Emerging Markets 

The discussion highlighted that emerging markets are benefiting from both cyclical and structural drivers. 

Investors are increasingly recognising that emerging markets offer a diverse opportunity set rather than a single homogeneous asset class, leading to more regional allocation strategies. 

Commodity-exporting markets, including South Africa, remain well positioned within this environment, supported by global demand for resources and minerals. 

Local Perspective and Portfolio Construction 

From a local perspective, the webinar highlighted strong flows into both multi-asset solutions and index building blocks. 

Balanced funds continue to attract significant inflows as investors seek diversified portfolios capable of managing volatility and downside risk. 

Global exposure remains an important component of portfolio construction, particularly in risk-off environments where currency dynamics can provide an additional layer of protection. 

Looking Ahead 

Key considerations from the session included: 

• The growing impact of geopolitical fragmentation on markets 
• The evolving role of commodities as strategic portfolio assets 
• Shifts in ETF flows as indicators of investor sentiment 
• The need for diversification beyond traditional asset class assumptions 
• The importance of emerging markets within global portfolios 

As markets continue to navigate uncertainty, a focus on diversification, income and structural growth drivers remains central to resilient portfolio construction. 

Watch the Recording 

The IndexMore webinar recording is available on demand. 

The session qualifies for Continuous Professional Development (CPD) points for eligible advisers. 

Access the recording here.

Disclaimer:  

Satrix Managers (RF) (Pty) Ltd is a registered and approved Manager in Collective Investment Schemes in Securities. Collective investment schemes are generally medium- to long-term investments. With Unit Trusts, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Actively Managed ETFs (AMETFs) the investor essentially owns a “proportionate share” (in proportion to the participatory interest held in the fund) of the underlying investments held by the fund. With Unit Trusts, the investor holds participatory units issued by the fund while in the case of ETFs and AMETFs, the participatory interest, while issued by the fund, comprises a listed security traded on the stock exchange. ETFs and AMETFs are registered as a Collective Investment and can be traded by any stockbroker on the stock exchange, LISP platforms and or via online trading platforms. ETFs and AMETFs may incur additional costs due to being listed on the JSE. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance, and the value of investments / units may go up or down. A schedule of fees and charges, and maximum commissions are available on the Minimum Disclosure Document or upon request from the Manager. Collective investments are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Should the respective portfolio engage in scrip lending, the utility percentage and related counterparties can be viewed on the ETF and AMETF Minimum Disclosure Document. AMETFs are ETFs which are actively traded by a Portfolio Manager to adjust the AMETF holdings and asset allocation with the aim to outperform the benchmark. AMETFs differ from ETFs which only track indices. The Manager does not provide any guarantee, either with respect to the capital or the return of a portfolio. The index, the applicable tracking error and the portfolio performance relative to the index can be viewed on the ETF and AMETF Minimum Disclosure Document and/or on https://satrix.co.za/products.